[新闻] 新一周占卜网数据（1.30~2.5）灵魂5首位、仙境2.8万不如次周生化、TOIR无缘10万

After a brief upswing last week, Japanese software sales have returned to being quite lousy this week. Not a single game sold over 50,000 units on a single platform this week. Even Namco-Bandai's Soul Calibur V, which was the leading title for the week, appears to have sold fewer than 50,000 units across X360 & PS3 combined for the week. Those figures are way down from Soul Calibur IV which opened to over 100,000 units across those two platforms in August 2008.

1) Soul Calibur IV (PS3) - 44,000

2) Resident Evil: Revelations (3DS) - 33,000

3) Ragnarok Odyssey (Vita) - 28,000

4) Gran Turismo 5: Special (PS3) - 26,000

6) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 23,000

6) Photokano (PSP) - 23,000

7) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (PSP) - 22,000

8) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 21,000

9) Armored Core 5 (PS3) - 18,000

10) Dragon Age II Best (PS3) - 14,000

13) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 8,000

13) Monster Hunter Portable 3 (PSP) - 8,000

13) Rhythm Kaitou R: Koutei Napoleon no Isan (3DS) - 8,000

15) Musou Orochi 2 (PS3) - 6,000

15) Tales of Innocence R (Vita) - 6,000

In addition to the games above, Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Inazuma Eleven Go Shine / Dark (3DS), Wii Party (Wii), Soul Calibur V (X360), and Nintendogs + Cats (3DS) should be in the final top 20 data for the week.

Soul Calibur V had a big time drop off from the previous iteration. Soul Calibur IV sold about 110,000 units week one, Soul Calibur V sold about 50,000 units week one. Now that we're in 2012, and with the PS3 and X360 game purchasing rates much lower than in the West, a lot of software that previously sold well, or just well enough, will sell too poorly to continue to be justified on the platforms. That probably isn't true yet for Soul Calibur V, as it will do decent figures in the West, but Japanese only content, and Japanese heavy content looks like it is in for a rough year on consoles in Japan.

February 2012 software and hardware sales should be down in Japan against February 2011. February 2011 had seven games launch over 100,000 units in their first week on the market, and it also had the strong launch week for 3DS. The 3DS is set to pass 5m by the second or third week of February 2012, within a year of launch in Japan, but total hardware and software is still likely to be down on February 2011 overall. During February 2011 an impressive 880,000 units of hardware sold in the Japanese market, February 2012 currently looks to be more like 550,000 - 600,000 units of hardware sold in the Japanese market. Software is trending to be down by a similar volume. March should be similarly tough, as the first two weeks of March were quite strong for 3DS still - leading to 1m units of hardware sold within five weeks. After March though, hardware should resume trending above the 2011 pace, ala January 2012 which was 400,000 units ahead of the January 2011 pace.

Another open question, going forward, is when Nintendo and publishers will release the next wave of major 3DS software. The Nov-Dec 2011 wave of Monster Hunter, Marioland, Inazuma Eleven, and Mario Kart is down to about 75,000 units per week already, and should begin to push far less hardware in a couple of weeks as those four games continue to slowly drop off to 50,000 units sold per week or less. Resident Evil, and Rhythm Kaitou have supplemented some of the drop off in those long-sellers in the past two weeks, but its really going to be back on the performance of those four major holiday games after mid-February to push hardware. Mario Kart in particular will sell for years, but it is likely to be more like 10,000 units sold per week for three or four years (more in Dec-Jan, Golden Week, and Obon) starting some point in the near future - with the other games are set to have slightly more front-loaded shelf-lives. Without another major infusion of software, 3DS hardware could be down to good but much more 'normal' rates in by mid-March 2012 -  perhaps 40,000-50,000 units per week instead of the 50,000 - 500,000 per week we've seen since the August 2011 price cut. 3DS doesn't have any major software coming in the immediate future now that Resident Evil is out, so it will be interesting to see where it stabilizes before Golden Week in late April.

[ 本帖最后由 蘑菇和跳！ 于 2012-2-6 10:09 编辑 ]