[新闻] 软件销量传闻

posted by wap, platform: iPhone

The Japan Preview: 12/18/11 Edition (Vita Launch, FFXIII-2 launch)
18th
Dec
Jacob Mazel, 3 hours ago, 893 views
Preliminary figures from Japan are in this week. Data for this week indicates that a huge amount of money was spent at Japanese retail, as Vita launched, and Final Fantasy XIII-2 put up large (in absolute terms) numbers. A lot of other software also increased from last week, and several Vita games had respectable launches. That said, there was no Layton on 3DS like launch figure for any Vita game - none of the new Vita titles topped 100,000 units or got anywhere close to that kind of figure week one.

1) Final Fantasy XIII-2 (PS3) - 670,000* (likely 700,000 - 740,000 with hw bundles, there were 140,000 FFXIII + PS3 hw bundles in 2009 against 1,370,000 standalone FFXIII units, so presumably there are up to 70,000 bundles for FFXIII-2)

2) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 175,000

3) Inazuma Eleven Go Dark / Shine (3DS) - 164,000

4) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 163,000

5) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 94,000

6) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 58,000

7) Blazblue: Continuum Shift Extend (PS3) - 49,000

8) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 46,000

9) Hotshots Golf (Vita) - 44,000

10) Lord of Apocalypse (Vita) - 38,000

12) Pokepark 2 (Wii) - 35,000

12) Uncharted: Golden Abyss (Vita) - 35,000

13) Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Ketteiban (Wii) - 32,000

15) Mario & Sonic at the London Olympics (Wii) - 29,000

15) Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. (PS3) - 29,000

In addition to the games above, Lord of Apocalypse (Vita), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 - Shinseka (DS), Nintendogs + Cats (3DS), and Wii Party (Wii) will likely chart in the final top 20 data as well.

The big stories for the week are Vita and Final Fantasy XIII-2 for PS3. Back in December 2004, PSP sold about 166,000 units week one in Japan. Vita should be two to four times bigger than that for hardware, although top PSP software in 2004 sold over 65,000 units week one - mainly because PSP had only six games at launch, compared to over 20 for Vita. Most Vita games likely sold 10,000 - 20,000 units this week, but given how large this week was for software, that puts most Vita games outside the preliminary data. Vita could easily see 15-20 games amount to say, 225,000 units, with the top three games mentioned above adding another 95,000 units or so. Vita will be a gift for many people, so the attach rate may not quite be one Vita game per Vita sold initially.

Figures for Final Fantasy XIII-2 came to 670,000 for the week, excluding another 5-10% that were likely bundled with PS3s. That was within the range presented last week, as preorders reached 365,000 for Final Fantasy XIII-2 the night before launch. In absolute terms, the launch was one of the biggest of the year. On the other hand, Final Fantasy XIII sold twice as many units when PS3 had over three million fewer users. Given how quickly Final Fantasy XIII dropped from week one to week two when launching in December, it is fairly likely that Final Fantasy XIII-2 will sell only 80,000 - 120,000 units next week and then struggle to reach 1m units in Japan. Final Fantasy XIII never reached 2m after opening to 1.5m - and so Final Fantasy XIII-2 could die off right around 950,000 or so which is pretty low for a mainline Final Fantasy game. Depending on how many Final Fantasy hardware bundles were sold, PS3 could top 100,000 units this week, which would just about get it to its 2010 pace. Anything less than 100,000 though, and PS3 (like Wii, PSP, DS, X360, and PS2) will likely end the year down in Japan from 2010.

Even with Sony enjoying a tremendous week in Japan, software sales for Nintendo platforms were quite strong this week. Leggy essential Wii software shot up rather nicely for the week, and Monster Hunter, Mario Kart, and Marioland held nicely for 3DS as Inazuma Eleven opened well. Nintendo hardware typically increases around a third this week in Japan, so 3DS could be at 500,000+ units this week if Inazuma Eleven provided a lift in addition to seasonality.

Assuming 3DS / Vita did the expected hardware numbers this week, Japan is now trending ahead of the 2010 pace for hardware and will end the year slightly up on a unit basis even with Wii, DS, PSP, PS2, X360 and possibly PS3 declining from 2010.



亮点
3DS    50万+
PSV 销量是32万到64万之间