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Here are some details about the Xbox360 LIVE bans I got directly and indirectly from GaryOPA, Commodore4eva (C4E), Iriez and others. Of course don't take any of this info as 100% confirmed, noone knows exactly based on what data MS is banning ... it's just an analysis of what they think is happening and what MS might/can be checking.

C4E thinks MS is probably detecting and banning consoles from LIVE by tracking usage of backups via timing of the challenge response (c/r) on the drive over the last few weeks or months. A modified FW will reply much faster to the the Challenges requests (stored in a table) than an original firmware (seek on drive). They probably do this test more than once and can ban you if you're above a certain average.
FuzzyLogic also found that microsoft is sometimes doing additional checks on discs: PFI/DMI (so images without these sectors (or if using on old FWs without support for PFI/DMI) can probably be detected easily), drive inquiry (reads ascii string from drive), and capacity (reports capacity of disc) are requested. Strange thing here is MS requests 0x8000 bytes for PFI and DMI, while it should normally be 0x0800 bytes. TheSpecialist pointed out that the remaining 0x7800 bytes contains the relocated SS and PFI on burned discs ... which would make it very easy to detect backups for MS. C4E however told us this would not work on TS drives as its cut off to 0800 even if more data is asked, it's unconfirmed how modified HLG FWs drives respond to this atm.
The "read capacity check" will also work as detection on HLG because, unlike the newest TS FWs, it doesn't have true 'stealth media' yet, these drives are reporting back the burned disc based size of PFI instead of the correct PFI.
Apparently there's also an issue with SS (Security Sector) extracted from Hitachi-LG and 'Kreon drives', some necessary data is screwed ... which means that probably only the Toshiba-Samsung drive has been extracting correct SS.

Another thing they are probably detecting (but probably not using yet to decide to ban or not) and log/flag is if you ever booted your Xbox360 with DVD SATA cable not connected to your Xbox360 (E64). Many people did this to power their drive when they wanted to flash it (power connected to 360, SATA to PC). So it's highly suggested to use an external power to flash next time.
It's also possible MS also bans based on stuff like bad credit card info for your country, running a NTSC machine with euro-address/credit card (or inverse), having out-of-region (arcade) games and demos on your HDD, unofficial 360 HDD, internet downloaded gamesaves etc. There's no clear view on all this yet.
For now, C4E believes Microsoft is not detecting modified FWs or detecting FW changes/updates. Using a special FW they did not detect any debug commands sent to the drive by MS (they went through the dash/kernel updates with the special FW as well and did not detect any debug commands there either). So they think either:
A/ MS is not doing any FW detection right now, and only previously (maybe on request of MS servers while playing on LIVE?), or
B/ MS is banning based only on the timings of the drive, ss/pfi/dmi checks, capacity, drive inquiry and c/r verification.

We also got information C4E is working on an "iXtreme Online" FW for Toshiba-Samsung drives, a Hitachi-LG version and maybe even BenQ version might follow later.
The new FW will have less features than the current Xtreme FWs: no single-layer (DVD5) support, no ripping of games (0800 mode), but more features to safely play from burned discs (emulate the exact speed and timings of the original games) and prevent booting from un-safe discs (without PFI and DMI or bad SS), or images that aren't exact dumps of the original.
There's no official ETA (maybe this weekend though for TS drives), and of course no guarantee MS will never ban you based on new checks (that's the risk it takes if you want to be part of the modding community ) The HLG FW will take a bit longer as it'll require true 'Stealth media' etc added.

This new FW will of course be made mostly for new consoles being modded, because even if you're not banned from LIVE yet there's no way to know if MS already has info/logs on your console ID regarding timings or other stuff so even changing to this new firmware in the near future may not stop that console ID from being banned in the next wave of MS bans.
If your console is not banned yet, it's highly suggested you don't use burned discs, originals should be ok, even when offline, until the release of the new FW.
If your console is already banned this will of course not help you ... just enjoy the offline playing on that console for now (with some games you could try using 3rd party networks like XLink Kai(info)) and maybe some day a new exploit will allow you to do more with that console.

To end with ... X-Scene's obvious tip of the month: don't buy 2nd hand Xbox360 consoles

转自xbox-scene，话好多，我高亮了一些，谁愿意翻译下的谢谢啦。

所以我们即将迎来崭新的FW: iXtreme

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Do you already know which is the real reason of the bans?
The bans is a manual process, logs and logs are watched. It takes time.

Manual? What is what they verify exactly?
Many things. Timming and startings without reader, like when you flasheas the reader with the power supply of the console, and some more.

So when we flash the XBOX360 with Xtreme Online we will not be able to do it with the power source of the console?
Correct. Or to do it with a console already banned.

On the other hand, will Xtreme Online will be completely secure?
YES

Does Xtreme Online will be available for Hitachi readers?
YES

Will also be available for the readers with firmware v79?
All the Hitachi, including the 79, but still would be necessary to flash it via hardware.

What happens with BenQ readers?
The version for BenQ will be available after the others, almost all the work was finished before the bans began.

Will be safe for the users to flash with Xtreme Online if they previously flash with others versions of Xtreme and they have not been banned?
We do not know that, it could happen or it couldnt happen. It could be too late if the user is already in the logs. But when the drive is flashed with Xtreme Online, it would be possible to called Microsoft complaining that the ban was not justified so they dont banned you console and there is no need to buy a new one.

So thanks to Xtreme Online we have a little hope for the ban to be removed?
Aparently yes they reescan the console if you complain to the SAT.

Briefly, how does the Xtreme Online works?
Xtreme Online will emulate the exact speed and timings of the original games, and will protect the users to execute backups stealth not avoiding its execution.

We must have some precaution with Xtreme Online?
The users must have well-taken care of not to flash the drive using the power supply of the unbann console. They should not play games before they leave the region.

Thank you very much by your time.

Something that to add?
YES look for release this weekend.

都是重点啊，这星期公布? 怎么没人理呢?

监控记录肯定有了，大概只是需要再收集一点吧。