https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190124PD210.html

Taiwan's upstream supply chain for Nintendo's Switch is expected to see shipments of the game console shrink 25-30% in 2019, according to industry sources.

After enjoying two years of strong sales, the game console is seeing demand approaching saturation and Nintendo has decelerated its order pull-in since the second half of 2018.

Nintendo originally gave the supply chain an estimate of 24 million units of Switch for calendar year 2018, but the actual shipments were less than 20 million, the sources pointed out. However, Nintendo has maintained that it is on course to achieve its shipment target of 20 million units for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2019.

Although the Japan-based gaming firm is planning to release a cheaper version of the game console in 2019, the trend of decelerated order pull-in by Nintendo will continue and shipments for the calendar year 2019 are estimated to be around 14-15 million units.

To maintain the growth, Nintendo is expected to place its focus primarily on software development, the sources said.

Currently, components of Nintendo Switch are stored at the upstream supply chain, waiting to be assembled and shipped with Nintendo's instruction, the sources said. Nintendo is mainly pulling in orders judging by its channel sales and inventory level.

During the year-end holiday period in 2018, Nintendo Switch's sales reached around 278,700 units in Japan and over 6.67 million units in the country since its release, according to research firm figures.

Based on upstream supply chain's estimates, Nintendo so far has sold around 40 million units of Switch worldwide

[ 本帖最后由 flies 于 2019-1-28 16:36 编辑 ]

新闻原文重点是上面的红字，2019年任天堂计划发售NS廉价版

这个NS廉价版估计就是很多人猜测的NS掌机版

廉价版都是低价发售的新型硬件，比如废除AV输出端口的GC，废除GC兼容模式的WII和废除裸眼3D的2DS都可以称之为廉价版

原文的4000万猜测是生产出荷

因为即将发售廉价版，所以NS初版出货量肯定要下降

至于发售廉价版的原因，就是我此前猜测的配合口袋和动森的掌机大IP的普及

引用:

原帖由 超级瓦里奥 于 2019-1-28 17:34 发表
posted by wap, platform: Samsung
但是下财年1400万跌幅也太大了，莫非是gen8真要跳票了？

历史上所有成功主机的年销量高峰都是第三第四年

为什么是第三第四年？因为从第三年开始硬件降价，因为从第三年开始出新型，因为从第三年开始游戏数量爆发

就算G8跳票，只要出新型，跌幅也不会这么大

何况我贴的英文并没有明确指出出货量下滑包括新型

反正我只相信自己的判断，2019-2020这两年是NS的销量高峰，这两年年均2000万没问题，要到2021年年销量才开始正式下滑，发售五年大约是9000万的累计销量

2018年估计实销1800万，首月+两个财年累计3700万

供应链指出生产出荷4000万，新财年出货预期1400-1500万，加上2018财年的300万多余出荷，新财年实际出货1700-1800万，没什么离谱的

何况新闻也指出这是供应链的预测，并不是老任自己的预测