任地狱财年第二季度财报前瞻及前景分析by著名任黑分析师
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/nintendo-earnings-preview-deep-stock-analysis.html/
October 23, 2012

The following is an excerpt from a report compiled by Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities

On Wednesday, October 24, at roughly 4:00pm Tokyo time / 3:00am ET, Nintendo (7974:JP) will report fiscal Q2:13 (ending September) results. Nintendo will not hold a call for the release, and has not scheduled a press briefing for the next day.

We expect a Q2 miss. Nintendo is likely to report Q2 results below our estimates for revenue of ¥100 billion and EPS of ¥(127), compared to consensus of ¥108 billion and ¥(84) and implied guidance of ¥145 billion and ¥(22). According to NPD, Nintendo’s U.S. hardware dollar sales were down 40% y-o-y (our model has down 30%), while software dollar sales were down 5% (our model is flat). F/X rates for the quarter were ¥78/$1 and ¥100/EUR 1 versus Nintendo’s FY:13 assumptions of ¥80/$1 and ¥105/EUR 1, negatively impacting results.

We think that Wii U’s price points are appropriate given likely demand from Nintendo’s core fan base, but believe that pricing will be too high to sustain long-term demand. Demand for the Wii U will likely wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 6-7 million units, especially given the number of cheaper, comparable alternatives. For example, the prices of the Xbox 360 Kinect bundles have been reduced by $50 at Amazon, GameStop (NYSE:GME), and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT).

DS and 3DS unit guidance is likely unrealistic. Nintendo guided to growth for combined DS/3DS hardware and software units for FY:13. In our view, handheld hardware sales will continue to decline due to migration of casual gamers to mobile devices. We do not expect handheld hardware to see a rebound in sales without price cuts. Similarly, we think that overall handheld software growth is unlikely.

"WiiU首发定价只是卖给任青的","掌机逐渐萎缩"等,比较典型的西方分析湿观点,仅供参考.不过任地狱到了继两代家用机沦陷时期之后的又一生死时刻,应该是大部分人都会同意的.

[ 本帖最后由 历史厨 于 2012-10-24 16:34 编辑 ]

Nintendo Cuts Forecast on Lower Demand for 3DS, Strong Yen
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/nintendo-cuts-forecast-on-lower-demand-for-3ds-stronger-yen.html

Nintendo Co., the world’s largest maker of video-game machines, cut its full-year profit forecast more than analysts had estimated because of weaker demand for its 3DS handheld player and a strong yen.

Net income may be 6 billion yen ($75 million) for the year ending March 31, compared with Nintendo’s previous estimate of a 20 billion yen profit, the Kyoto, Japan-based company said in a statement today. The outlook compares with the 10.6 billion-yen average of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.      
                 
Nintendo cut its sales forecast for the 3DS game players 5.4 percent to 17.5 million units and lowered its estimate for software sales amid weakening demand.

The console maker, which got 72 percent of its revenue from the Americas and Europe last fiscal year, booked a 23.2 billion- yen exchange-rate loss in this fiscal year’s first half after the Japanese currency was stronger against the dollar and euro than Nintendo projected.

The company posted a 43.2 billion-yen loss last fiscal year, its first since going public in 1962.

汇率问题还是令任地狱很受伤...

[ 本帖最后由 历史厨 于 2012-10-24 16:35 编辑 ]

说实话， 我从当初自己也不怎么看好wiiu到现在非常期待wiiu
尽管有任青成分作怪， 但个人认为wiiu的前景再差应该也不会比GC差了

引用:

原帖由 lsn 于 2012-10-24 17:38 发表
说实话， 我从当初自己也不怎么看好wiiu到现在非常期待wiiu
尽管有任青成分作怪， 但个人认为wiiu的前景再差应该也不会比GC差了

和GC差不多那等于是半死了。

引用:

原帖由 曾经在林中的狼 于 2012-10-24 19:50 发表

和GC差不多那等于是半死了。

以现在的游戏界来说， 卖好卖坏都是半死

引用:

原帖由 曾经在林中的狼 于 2012-10-24 19:50 发表

和GC差不多那等于是半死了。

GC时代盈利上并不差，只是市场占有率和当时风头正盛的ps2对比确实是难看。
GC上游戏开发难度和制作成本并不高，WIIU时代挑战就大多了。

传统游戏业衰退+日企的衰退，这两大寒流交叠的影响下，任的考验很大。

保证不死就行

起码要保证能尽快转成赢利，否则股东和投资人方面压力太大。